SPX -FOREX

First off I have been playing FOREX EUR/USD reason why I haven't posted much about the SPX... So I would like to give a quick update on the SPX and then an introduction into forex.

SPX - It appears that we are doing a classic ABC from the low last week.. Looks like 1113 then back to 1092 then up to 1020 to 1025? Then back down. So all of the charts are bearish, which makes me believe that we are on our way to 900 to 960.... However if we don't do an ABC or close above 1130, I think the bulls are back in control and we make new highs. So we need to watch the movement closely. What do I think? I think bears are in control.. until proven otherwise.

Daily - shows support line broke - and bearish indicators... tell me we are in bearish trend until proven otherwise....

60 min SPX - red line shows my ABC prediction... If we close above 1130 i think we become bullish again...
FOREX - Below is why I have been focusing mainly on FOREX.. I start with $40 and have made $600 and some change since Jan 18th..... Look below this is all my trade and transactions.... Yep, it is worth while, but I warn RISKY. Key is 60 min and daily.. Don't look at any other charts....

FOREX 60 min eur-usd - This shows that we are currently overbought and the 60 min is about to turn over... I shorted at 1.3970 with a target of the pink line tonight sometime... Once we get to the pink line I would switch and go long again..... The current trend is bullish on the eur-usd 60 min.

FOREX daily eur-usd - this shows the trend as being overall bearish, however we are in a correction from the lows. Target for me is up in the area of the green dotted line. Notice indicators are turning bullish temporarly.

What next?

Thought? Well I am just going to speak what I see on the chart today... First off I still think we are in an expanding triangle from July to now. Yesterday we bounced of the bottom of the expanding triangle. So as long as that bottom of the expanded triangle holds then we are still in this trend. So what is next? Some people say 1115 to 1130 then back down hard... This is possible, however I think it would be more likely to me if we would of broken that bottom of the expanding triangle... However we didn't. So my target of 1175 and maybe even higher now since we have plenty of room on the indicators now....

Another reason why I don't think we are done, which I have mention several times. If 1150 was the top I would expect the RSI and all the other indicators to be maxed out, not just bullish. 30% + corrections come after everything is extremely overbought. So again I will be watching the daily RSI, I want it over 70 to 75 before I am confident we are done.

So keys - we should run up to anywhere from 1115 to 1130 then pullback down to 1100, and run again... however if that bottom expanding triangle is broken then this is the pullback. However I am sticking to what I have seen on the charts and what I see now. 1175... GL

Daily SPX - to me this is the most important chart right now.... RSI, stochastics are the lowest that have been since end of June and beginning of July... That was followed by a 100+ point move... For the indicators to pullback that much and stay within this uptrending trendline tells me we are still bullish... I still think this will be the last leg up, then that big correction comes...

30 min SPX - fork and trendlines will show us the way.. Look for a bounce down off the middle fork then a break thru the middle up to the top fork... break thru the bottom then bulls are done...

Confusing Market but Not

Well I will be the first to say that I have been all over the place the last few days... 2 Reasons, this move caught me off guard and I haven't had a chance to sit down and see what the charts are saying... I appoligize for that.

I have 2 ideas on what is going to happen... I still favor that we will see 1175 somewhere around feb 5th to feb 9th... However there is also a chance that we don't hold the next support level, if that happens the the down move has started and 960's? here we come...

SPX daily - this pretty much shows us the way... As you can see we have been doing an expanded traingle since July and bouncing off that bottom trendline like clock work ( 1088 looks like it now)... Well that expanded triangle is coming to an end... So either one more bounce to 1175 area or we break this bottom trendline and start down... EW - I still think this is an expanding triangle.. a,b,c,d,e count... The question is if the 1150 was the end of e or do we go higher to complete e? I don't think e is done yet... Pattern should be a 3,3,3,3,3 move.. I see 2 of e but looks like one more is left... Time will tell.. If the bottom of the expanding triangle is broke then we know 100% that we have started the 5 wave down move....



30 min SPX - shows how are oversold here and within the blue parelell trend lines... Tells me bounce is coming. 30 min gann - funny how these gann lines come into play, I am still working on how to read them better... good references though..

Correction

This is just a correction of the recent moves up... Yesterday we didn't finish this correction.. It looks like we have 2 to 5 more points to give up... I expect that to happen this morning, and then for the bottom to confirm (double bottom), then a decent bounce. Once we confirm that bottom mark that level because it will be the support we need to watch to maintain the 1175 target.

I will add position on open...

Quick 30 min chart... Shows some support lines that may come into play. Also look at the indicators very oversold here. GL

Still bullish

10:17 cst - Update do panic here... 1120 should hold... great entry here with target still for 1175... GL We just corrected more then I thought here... Which just gives us more room on the indicators for the upside moving coming.

Morning update 8cst

Quick update. Everything is pretty much in play. However yesterday's move was pretty weak, so this concerns me a little (in triangle or rectangle correction). I think everyone at this time should have a tight stop on their long positions until we either hold 1129 or make new high.. Always better to be safe then sorry.

Saying that everything still is in play... 1175 feb 5th?

30 min gann still has nice targets..

Long Term - same.. 1175 then down

Short Term - looks like we are in a triangle or rectangle correction (this should of been the last leg down), good entry with short stop..

Trading advice - same! short over 1150... long with close stop until 1175...


30 min SPX - no changes
30 min gann - watch the targets

60 min... same - indicators are way oversold here... still bullish look to me

daily - this is the key why I don't think we are done yet.... We broke that trendline but quickly reocvered and closed above it. Sign of weakness, so we need to be careful. I think it is just confirming that we are close to the top.

January 17th 2010 Update

First off 1175 didn't hit on Jan 14th, 15th, however we did hit a new high 1150.. It is starting to look like the 1175 area will be the top of this move... The daily gann points to that 1175 to hit around feb 5th... Gann also points to 1200 toward the first of feb.. Which one? See the daily below.

Gann - Remember this target on Gann isthat the price will be at the level at that time, it doesnt mean the price can't go above it first... So basically it is just a reference point.. Pretty powerful tool so far.

Long Term - Same... Really watch the daily RSI... Some reason 1175 is starting to look like the top, unless we keep this really slow stair step up.. Top is not that far away.. Once top 10% pullback coming (1000?)

Short Term - It looks like this minor pullback is about complete. looks like we get to 1150 by jan 21st, pullback to 1142 then work our way past 1150 on jan 25th or so? Look for this move to be that slow stair step again...

Trading advice/opinion - Long term I would add short position in 20% portions above 1150 for a March 31st target. Short term if in long just hold.. If not I would add under 1138... target 1150 then 1175?

30 min SPX - key here is we are bouncing off that main trendline and it looks like we just completed a nice ABC correction.. Up next?
30 min gann - This 30 min gann has been powerful.. It tells me 1150 by jan 21st then 1142 around 22nd or so then back to 1150 on Jan 50th... Watch that black gann line... we will most likely follow it up slowly.

60 min SPX - didn't change much... Shows RSI hitting support and price movement hitting and bouncing off that trendline... Again pointing that next move is up.

Daily SPX - Again didn't change move. Bouncing off major trendline.. Again watch the RSI.. we still got to break 70 before we are done! Daily Gann - Ok that middle blue gann line has been very powerful... We have followed and bounced off of this line since 666. So I matched it up with 1175 area, and that gives up Feb 5th. 1200 around the first is in play, but I think weaker then the 1175...

January 12th 2010 Update

Don't have time to post much...

Wanted to show the updated 30 min gann and 60 min spx..

Everything still in play.. met the target exactly on the 30 min gann. GL

30 min gann

60 min SPX