I have 2 ideas on what is going to happen... I still favor that we will see 1175 somewhere around feb 5th to feb 9th... However there is also a chance that we don't hold the next support level, if that happens the the down move has started and 960's? here we come...
SPX daily - this pretty much shows us the way... As you can see we have been doing an expanded traingle since July and bouncing off that bottom trendline like clock work ( 1088 looks like it now)... Well that expanded triangle is coming to an end... So either one more bounce to 1175 area or we break this bottom trendline and start down... EW - I still think this is an expanding triangle.. a,b,c,d,e count... The question is if the 1150 was the end of e or do we go higher to complete e? I don't think e is done yet... Pattern should be a 3,3,3,3,3 move.. I see 2 of e but looks like one more is left... Time will tell.. If the bottom of the expanding triangle is broke then we know 100% that we have started the 5 wave down move....
30 min SPX - shows how are oversold here and within the blue parelell trend lines... Tells me bounce is coming.
30 min gann - funny how these gann lines come into play, I am still working on how to read them better... good references though.. 
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I agree. That lower trendline is what matters and is what we should be watching. Not sure it matters, but I think you need to move your upper trendline into a parallel channel. Like this:
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I would say that there are couple of things on my radar confirming another bounce higher: 1) $BDI 2) $TED 3) Visit http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php and type in ^OEX. The maximum pain for February is HIGHER than were we are and March pain is waaaaaay lower. So one more push up before decline into march is a good possibility IMHO
ReplyDeleteAlso GLD/SLV ratio and $USD are both at 200MAs so far
Not to mention that VIX just reached and closed it's gap at 27-28 area. VIX gaps work quite well as turning points
ReplyDeleteLoser do you include EW at all in your analysis...according to them there is no possible way we can top the existing high.
ReplyDeleteThey feel we are at the beginning of P3 the big catastrophic wave down. Prechter, Neely and Mchugh are all short at this time. I suppose new highs would wipe out the bears for good but just can't see it happening considering the current political environment and banking sector. Is it true that with Gann lines there is the potential to go back and forth between lines before every heading over the 1150 area?
hey mouth - I updated the last post with a SPX daily EW count, and you will see verbage in bold.
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