First off 1175 didn't hit on Jan 14th, 15th, however we did hit a new high 1150.. It is starting to look like the 1175 area will be the top of this move... The daily gann points to that 1175 to hit around feb 5th... Gann also points to 1200 toward the first of feb.. Which one? See the daily below.
Gann - Remember this target on Gann isthat the price will be at the level at that time, it doesnt mean the price can't go above it first... So basically it is just a reference point.. Pretty powerful tool so far.
Long Term - Same... Really watch the daily RSI... Some reason 1175 is starting to look like the top, unless we keep this really slow stair step up.. Top is not that far away.. Once top 10% pullback coming (1000?)
Short Term - It looks like this minor pullback is about complete. looks like we get to 1150 by jan 21st, pullback to 1142 then work our way past 1150 on jan 25th or so? Look for this move to be that slow stair step again...
Trading advice/opinion - Long term I would add short position in 20% portions above 1150 for a March 31st target. Short term if in long just hold.. If not I would add under 1138... target 1150 then 1175?
30 min SPX - key here is we are bouncing off that main trendline and it looks like we just completed a nice ABC correction.. Up next?
30 min gann - This 30 min gann has been powerful.. It tells me 1150 by jan 21st then 1142 around 22nd or so then back to 1150 on Jan 50th... Watch that black gann line... we will most likely follow it up slowly.
60 min SPX - didn't change much... Shows RSI hitting support and price movement hitting and bouncing off that trendline... Again pointing that next move is up.
Daily SPX - Again didn't change move. Bouncing off major trendline.. Again watch the RSI.. we still got to break 70 before we are done!
Daily Gann - Ok that middle blue gann line has been very powerful... We have followed and bounced off of this line since 666. So I matched it up with 1175 area, and that gives up Feb 5th. 1200 around the first is in play, but I think weaker then the 1175...
Gann - Remember this target on Gann isthat the price will be at the level at that time, it doesnt mean the price can't go above it first... So basically it is just a reference point.. Pretty powerful tool so far.
Long Term - Same... Really watch the daily RSI... Some reason 1175 is starting to look like the top, unless we keep this really slow stair step up.. Top is not that far away.. Once top 10% pullback coming (1000?)
Short Term - It looks like this minor pullback is about complete. looks like we get to 1150 by jan 21st, pullback to 1142 then work our way past 1150 on jan 25th or so? Look for this move to be that slow stair step again...
Trading advice/opinion - Long term I would add short position in 20% portions above 1150 for a March 31st target. Short term if in long just hold.. If not I would add under 1138... target 1150 then 1175?
30 min SPX - key here is we are bouncing off that main trendline and it looks like we just completed a nice ABC correction.. Up next?
30 min gann - This 30 min gann has been powerful.. It tells me 1150 by jan 21st then 1142 around 22nd or so then back to 1150 on Jan 50th... Watch that black gann line... we will most likely follow it up slowly.
60 min SPX - didn't change much... Shows RSI hitting support and price movement hitting and bouncing off that trendline... Again pointing that next move is up.
Daily SPX - Again didn't change move. Bouncing off major trendline.. Again watch the RSI.. we still got to break 70 before we are done!
Daily Gann - Ok that middle blue gann line has been very powerful... We have followed and bounced off of this line since 666. So I matched it up with 1175 area, and that gives up Feb 5th. 1200 around the first is in play, but I think weaker then the 1175...
Posts
Great post Gary! I'm keeping an open mind with regard to when to expect a top, but I just caught this post at Red's: http://reddragonleo.com/2010/01/17/weekend-update-18/
ReplyDeleteAnd he offers a Feb 9/10 turn date, which could match yours, although I don't agree with his EW count/interpretation. My bias is towards Steve's count. :) But yeah, slow stair step is the word! The momentum has lost a lot of steam, signs of a coming top.
Thanks for catching us up Gary. Is there any alternate play i.e. if we get down to 1127 these projections are void?
ReplyDeleteHope your trip is going well.
test... i thought I posted a response?
ReplyDeleteMouth - if breaks that trendline then I would start taking a bearish approach... However the charts just don't tell me that yet.. GL
Can you explain why you believe RSI has to go above 70 before we are done? Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteSoul... No problems man.. As you know I don't use one thing, and I have my own strange way or method in looking at charts.. So some of this I am saying is my opinion on what I see. Now saying that here are my thoughts.
ReplyDeleteFirst off - 30 min 60 min charts indicators top and move up and down faster. So studying them can really help you understand them. Now the daily is just the 30 min and 60 min smoothed out over time and etc. Pretty simple but there is a point.
Second - Look at the 30 and 60 mins - Everytime the RSI gets above 70 or even 80..... What happens? a correction (EW terms ABC) occurs. (example 30 min topped out on the 11th RSI above 70 then we did an ABC correction or pullback) FYI corrections can still make new highs).. Now remember my first statement about daily is just smoothing out the 60 min and 30 mins (big picture). But the indicators and etc are the same. Pull up a 10 year daily and look back.
Third - It can get confusing like the recent tops above 70 and we keep going up... Well that is because of the divergence (decline but remain bullish).
Putting all this together on the current daily... We just broke divergence on the RSI and now back bullish... So a push above 70 is most likey to happen... Just my opinion... I good example of what I expect to happen is from oct 06 to June 07.. we would be in the april to may 07 area.
But just because I think or say this doesn't mean it is a rule or anything..
Another site on RSI
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?i...
Thanks L-II. Appreciate the time you put in for that response.
ReplyDeletejust wondering if it made any sense?? sometimes I really don't know how to explain what I see. Just patterns and trends...
ReplyDeleteSJ Have you ever played with FOREX? Fun stuff. I am going to try again, with gann.. I think it will be powerful.
It made sense. This is an interesting juncture in the markets. Really interesting.
ReplyDeleteI have not played with FOREX or options. Staying with what I can handle. Would be interesting though. Good luck!
Forex you can start with $25... Fun jus to play with... I turned $40 into $100 over 2 days.. ;) Fun stuff. Just play the USD/EUR since I have both the USD and EUR charts.. ;)
ReplyDeleteLol..are you kidding me $25? Can you link the site you use, would be a fun game.
ReplyDeleteI have a serious question. As you know I had the 1/11 high as a possible top, but reserved the possibility that it may not be the top. Among other things, I wanted to see a better trned line hit. The other thing was 1/11 was also the highest RSI reading (daily) in this wave up. So, at that time we were left with the possibility that we had just completed wave iii or just completed wave v of the last wave up. I am pretty sure you are aware of this (you might have told me cannot remember) but typically the highest RSI occurs in wave iii and not wave v. So, that had me thinking maybe that was wave iii and not wave v. So, with that aside, do you think the RSI will top out higher than 1/11 to end this wave?
Nice job Gary...keep up the great work....
ReplyDeleteSJ.... you are talking about the 60 min...Doesn't tell the big picture just the 60 min picture.
ReplyDeleteDaily says something different right? Long term watch daily... Short term everything (reason why more risky). EW....I think ABC's work better here.... I think this whole move from july 1st could be a correction (expanded traingle)......... Hard to see I know, but there is a reason why everyone on the EW side is all over the place..... 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 break all kinds of rules... so ABC and triangles come into play..... GL..
Sometimes you have to get off your gut and everyone else and just let the chart talk to you...... yeah I know I am wierd! GL
SJ again thank you,
Mouth... how much $$ have you made with my and your own help? just curious if someone else is making $$$$$$$?
forex... SJ..
ReplyDeleteha.. I made another $50 today/tonght.. to easy so far..... it takes awhile to learn though.
Currently I am using... easy.forex.com... however I don't like it but only one I can get to work on work CPU.
My favorite which I use on my home CPU when I have time is FXCM.com... which is a great charting and trading system... I recommend this one... GL... ..
Feel free to ask me for advice on EUR/USD... only one I trade... because it follows market.. ;)
Loser I went against you last night and bought puts..just felt it..made 30% and jumped into calls today...
ReplyDeleteprior that that the day before OE I was feeling your calls and I bought some calls on the dip and made $1600 in a matter of a few hours.
Loser you can get a good thing going but you need to be able to get the bottoms and tops so folks make $$$...otherwise if you stay in waiting to hit the high and taking the tanks i.e. Friday and today...it hurts.
Great trade... I called for a little pullback, but I didn't see 1129...
ReplyDeleteNice job!