Long Term - Same... Really watch the daily RSI... Some reason 1175 is starting to look like the top, unless we keep this really slow stair step up.. Then maybe 1200 Feb 1st?
Short Term - Monday should finish out this move to 1150 area... Then look for a pullback to 1130 to 1135 before we make another run up to 1175 (Jan 15th?)...
Trading advice/opinion - Long term I would add short position in 20% portions above 1150 for a March 31st target. Short term if not in I would wait until mid next week (pullback 1130 to 1135) and jump in for the ride to 1175?
60 min SPX - this is just showing us that we have seen this move before... So what is next? Up day monday then minor pullback... Watch that RSI.
30 min gann- still following that gann line up... once that 60 min RSI tops what for those to circles points indicated for pullback targets (1132 Jan12th and 1135 Jan 13th).
Daily SPX - Really need to watch this RSI close. We are getting close to that 70 mark... One or 2 big moves and we will get there fast... However looks like we are going to stair step our way up so should take a few weeks.
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Thanks for the update! How likely is a pullback to 1135 once we hit the 1150 region, given how small the pullbacks over the past week have been? I'm just concerned that we'll get a parabolic move up to 1170, much as I'd like to short this on Monday. Having said that, Jay shows the greatest weakness on 1/12: http://jaywiz.blogspot.com/2010/01/january-2010_4868.html
ReplyDeleteIf we pass 1154 on Mon, would that be a good indication that we'll keep going up and not to expect a correction? TIA.
To be honest with you i would watch the RSI on that 60 min chart. When the RSI on the 60 min gets to 80 that would signal a little pullback is coming... This doesn't mean we will not go higher... Good example look at the nov 9 - nov 16 move on that 60 min, and study that RSI and price movement... Look for something like that...
ReplyDeleteUse the same thing on the daily for when this top is completely done....
PS - since we are in a bull move I wouldn't short unless long term with a target further out then march 31st. Be patient.. there will be a pullback, for you to get in for this move to 1175. If not then, just go with the longer term approach. Don't get greedy. Good luck.
Thanks for the sound advice! I tend to play very short term trades so I was thinking of only a quick short on Mon to Tues, then long again. There's definitely a bear move coming before we get to 1175 though... it's OpEx week after all!
ReplyDeleteIf you were counting EW... We would be in wave 3 of C from 1093.. So shorting at the top could be a good play... But risky.... To me just be patient and play with the trend... I learned the hard way! ;) Instead of catching the high and shorting...Just wait for the pullback and buy more calls... To me this safer, because you are playing with the trend instead of against.
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